We are happy to invite you to the research seminar by the Center for Economic Expertise which will take place onThursday, June 6th. During the seminar Žymantas Budryswill present the topic „The term structure of judgement: interpreting survey disagreement"
Consensus forecasts by professionals are highly accurate, yet hide large heterogeneity. We develop a framework to extract the judgement component from survey forecasts and analyse the extent to which it contributes to respondents’ disagreement. For the average respondent, we find a substantial contribution of judgement about the current quarter, which often steers unconditional forecasts towards the realisation, thereby improving accuracy. We identify the structural components of judgement exploiting stochastic volatility and give an economic interpretation to expected future shocks. For individual respondents, a little over a third of disagreement is due to differences in coefficients or models used, the remaining is due to different assessments about future shocks; the latter mostly concerns the size of shocks, while there is a general agreement on their source.
Informacija apie seminarą
- Time: June 6, 14:00-15:00
- Venue: room 417 and MS Teams Click here
- Presenter: Žymantas Budrys, Research Fellow at Center for Economic Expertise; Senior Economist at the Center for Excellence in Finance and Economic Research (CEFER), Bank of Lithuania
- Topic:„The term structure of judgement: interpreting survey disagreement"
- Working language: English
Seminaras yra atviras visiems – studentams, dėstytojams, mokslininkams. Kviečiame pasisemti žinių!